₿ MicroStrategy (MSTR) Bankruptcy Risk & Selling Pressure Analysis
Source: SEC, Tiger Research | SBL = Static Bankruptcy Line | Daily Volume: 284k BTC
Real-time BTC Price (1-min refresh)
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📡 Data Sources: 1st: Binance API → 2nd: CoinGecko API → 3rd: Coinbase API (sequential fallback)
Bankruptcy Risk
0.0001
(0.01%)
% of Daily Volume
25.0%
Caution
Required BTC to Sell
71,111 BTC
≈ $6.40B
Until SBL
-76.2%
$23,125
🚨 2028 Core Risk: Put Option Concentration ($6.4B)
At $90k
71,111 BTC
≈ $6.40B
25% of volume
At $60k
106,667 BTC
≈ $6.40B
38% of volume
At SBL
276,757 BTC
≈ $6.40B
97% of volume
📊 Liquidity Stress Zones
< 10%
Normal
Market can absorb without stress
$145k+
10-20%
Caution
Slippage, increased volatility
$73k~$145k
20-30%
Danger
Market collapse trigger zone
$48k~$73k
30%+
Extreme
MSTR single liquidity shock
< $48k
📈 SBL Time Series Evolution
📊 $9,285 (2020) → $23,125 (2025) = +149% | SBL continues rising with leverage expansion
❓ What is SBL (Static Bankruptcy Line)?
📌 Definition
The Static Bankruptcy Line (SBL) is the BTC price level at which a company cannot repay total debt even by selling all assets.
Formula:
2025 Q3: $14.8B ÷ 640,031 BTC ≈ $23,125
SBL = Total Debt / BTC Holdings
2025 Q3: $14.8B ÷ 640,031 BTC ≈ $23,125
🔍 Why is it Important?
1.Structural Bankruptcy Baseline: BTC price ≤ SBL → Asset value < Debt → Technical insolvency
2.Dynamic Indicator: Increased leverage → SBL rises → "Safety margin" baseline moves up
3.Leading Indicator: As price approaches SBL, credit risk and refinancing difficulties increase
📊 MSTR SBL Evolution
2020
$9,285
2023
$12,157
2025 Q3
$23,125
5-year SBL +149% increase → Higher bear market sensitivity
📉 Bankruptcy Risk Score vs BTC Price
Risk(P) = min(1, (23,125/P)²) | 4 decimal places
Current Risk Score: 0.0001 (0.01%) |
P ≤ $23,125 → Risk = 1.0000 (100%)
💥 2028 Selling Pressure vs BTC Price
Q(P) = $6.4B / P | Required BTC quantity and USD value
━ Required BTC Sales
━ % of Daily Volume
💵 USD value always = $6.4B (fixed)
📈 SBL Time Series Evolution
📊 $9,285 (2020) → $23,125 (2025) = +149% | SBL continues rising with leverage expansion
📋 Price Threshold Table (with USD values)
| BTC Price | BTC to Sell | USD Value | % of Volume | Zone |
|---|
💡 USD value is always $6.4B (2028 repayment amount) | Lower BTC price = More BTC must be sold
⚠️ Not investment advice | Source: SEC, Tiger Research | Price: Binance/CoinGecko/Coinbase API